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This week, Iran and Pakistan took extraordinary action against one other, exchanging cross-border airstrikes on locations they allege are terrorist hideouts and safe havens being utilized as bases of operations.
First, on Tuesday, Tehran claimed that Iranian warplanes had struck camps in southwest Pakistan belonging to the Sunni insurgent organization Jaish al-Adl. The strike was described as an “unprovoked violation of its airspace” by the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which also stated that at least two children were killed and three others were injured.
Then, Pakistani airstrikes targeted what Islamabad described as training camps belonging to Baluch insurgents in southeastern Iran on Thursday in retaliation for Tuesday’s attack. At least nine people — four children, three women, and two men — who were non-Iranian citizens were killed, according to Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, who condemned the strikes.
Tehran has accused Jaish al-Adl of carrying out attacks across the border inside Iran, alleging that Pakistan provides hideouts for the group and other militants known for high-profile attacks against the Iranian military — claims which Islamabad denies.
Meanwhile, in the Baluchistan region of southwest Pakistan, Baluch separatist organisations including the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Baluch Liberation Front have assaulted government employees, law enforcement, and structures. Tehran disputes Islamabad’s accusations that it has provided them with a safe haven in Iran, where they obtain finance and training.
The foreign ministers of Pakistan and Iran “agreed to de-escalate the situation,” noting that their nations must maintain “mutual trust and cooperation,” in a statement released by the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Jilani’s conversation with Amir-Abdollahian took place on Friday.
Iran, a country with a Shia majority, and Pakistan, a country with a Sunni majority, have never had good relations because each country accuses the other of exploiting its minority as stand-ins for their own. However, historically, the neighbours have been able to continue regular diplomatic, commercial, and military exchanges. Even though there were bilateral activities scheduled for this week, they had to be cancelled on Tuesday due to Iran’s airstrikes in Pakistan.
The cross-border airstrikes this week are the first high-profile attacks to occur between the two countries, according to researcher Ijaz Khan, who is based in Islamabad and was previously the head of the University of Peshawar’s Department of International Relations. He said that bilateral ties “cannot go back” to how they were.
In an interview with ABC News on Thursday, Khan said, “Iran and Pakistan had differences in the past over a range of issues, but still they were able to keep their differences at a certain level and downplay them.” “It was never public expression of disagreement between them.”
They had a long-standing suspicion of one another. “Those doubts will grow,” he continued. “The chances of reacting negatively against each other would be much more than before.”
At a time when the larger area is already tense due to Israel’s protracted conflict with Iran-backed Palestinian terrorist organisation Hamas in the neighbouring Gaza Strip, ties between Pakistan and Iran have deteriorated. The Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are backed by Iran, have been using drones and missiles to attack commercial ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since the start of the conflict last October. They claim that this is done in support of Hamas and the many suffering Palestinian people in Gaza. Since then, the US has taken the lead in massive bombings carried out in retaliation on Houthi targets in Yemen.
“Iran restrained itself from jumping into it, but there was always fear that this may happen and this may escalate,” Khan stated to ABC News. “A lot of realignment may take place in the region.”
Now, in the course of a week, Iran has struck Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan, opening three fronts at once. In retaliation for a suicide attack earlier this month that left over 90 people dead and for which the Sunni extremist organisation Islamic State claimed responsibility, Tehran launched airstrikes in Syria and Iraq late on Monday. Khan cautioned that there will be “implications” regardless of whether the series of incidents this week are related to what is currently occurring in the Middle East.
According to Khan, he and other observers in the area are “baffled” by Iran’s recent actions and fear that any more escalation on any front could lead to conflict.
“Before this, thinking of an open conflict between Iran and Pakistan was not a serious topic for discussion,” Khan stated to ABC News. It can’t be ruled out just yet, though. Even if they are manage to stop the current situation from getting worse, it can never be completely ruled out.”
“Even if it doesn’t escalate physically,” he said, “politically, it will.”
