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State victories in India help Modi’s re-election campaign.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Narendra Modi is poised to win three of India’s four critical state elections ahead of the vital federal elections next year.
In Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, the BJP holds a strong advantage. In the southern state of Telangana, the Congress is comfortably ahead.
More than 160 million individuals, or one-sixth of India’s population, were eligible to vote in the November elections. Mizoram, a fourth state, will have its voters counted on Monday.
Did these polls serve as a litmus test for Mr Modi’s chances of earning a record third term in next year’s national elections? In other words, would a higher showing by the Congress have signaled a potential setback for the BJP?
Not exactly. The Congress won three crucial state elections in 2018: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. Three months later, the BJP won the national and all three state elections. State elections in India are contested for problems unique to the state or area, whereas general elections are fought over more national-level ones.
Despite this dynamic, Mr Modi’s victory on Sunday is a substantial boost to his campaign for a historic third term in the next year.
Furthermore, the BJP has regularly lost state elections. Until today, the party, which has a solid majority in parliament, ruled 15 of India’s 28 states, but only nine directly. The remainder formed a coalition with lesser partners.
The BJP is practically unbeatable in the “Hindi heartland” of northern and central India, having retaken control of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh from the Congress and retaining Madhya Pradesh for a record fifth term. This Hindi-speaking belt sends more than 200 MPs to parliament through ten states.
The elections, on the other hand, were more significant for the Congress.
An improved performance would have boosted morale and positioned the party as the obvious leader of a nascent alliance of 28 opposition parties known as INDIA. The party seemed to be leading the battle to win Madhya Pradesh at one time but then lost steam as the BJP gained support. The party has previously struggled to translate state gains into national election victory, and it is currently failing to retain state administrations as well. The anti-incumbency movement is harder on Congress.
However, there is one bright spot. The Congress was successful in capturing the southern state of Telangana, where the regional BRS party faced anti-incumbency. Following a spectacular victory in Karnataka in May, it is now making inroads into southern India.
So, what were the elements that influenced voting behavior in recent polls? Aside from a track record of governance, factors like caste, identity, and the appeal of the BJP’s Hindu nationalism appear to have an impact on voting patterns.
Mr Modi himself said during his campaign that a policy to distribute 5kg of free grain per month to 800 million of India’s poorest citizens will continue for the next five years. The revival of his party in Madhya Pradesh has also been attributed to a scheme that provides a monthly stipend of 1,250 rupees [$16; £12] to qualified women from underprivileged households – women account for 47% of the state’s 50 million voters.
Many pundits labeled such welfarism by all parties as competitive populism, but in truth, it highlighted the precarious lives of millions of Indians who rely on government handouts to make ends meet.
In August, a countrywide poll conducted by India Today magazine found that Mr Modi’s popularity has not waned after a decade in office, with more than half of respondents believing he should continue to govern India.
big resources, a big 24/7 party organization, a government grounded in a comprehensive welfare system, and a mostly supportive media all contribute to the BJP’s powerful armament. It’s hardly unexpected that Mr Modi and his party look to be on track to win a spectacular third term next year.
