Donald Trump’s escalating language is swaying more Iowa Republicans towards his side.

Caleb McCullough: Will we see a final Republican debate before the Iowa caucuses?

The possibility of a Republican presidential debate in Iowa in the days before the caucuses is still uncertain — how much does it matter?

CNN announced plans last week to host a debate in Iowa on Jan. 10 at Drake University. Based on polling criteria, only former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are likely to qualify.

DeSantis’ campaign has accused Haley, who has not committed to attending the CNN debate, of trying to dodge the last debate before the caucuses. The campaign dubbed her “hiding Haley” and said she is afraid of a one-on-one debate with the Florida governor.

People are also reading…

Haley’s campaign, though, said she is fully planning to debate in Iowa but has not decided whether she will attend the CNN debate or a different forum.

“Since the RNC pulled out of the debates, many new offers have come in,” Haley campaign spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas said. “We look forward to debating in Iowa and continuing to show voters why Nikki is the best candidate to retire Joe Biden and save our country. That debate should include Donald Trump.”

FILE – Republican presidential candidates from left, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy arrive on stage before a Republican presidential primary debate hosted by NBC News Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2023, at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County in Miami. Republican presidential candidates will cross paths again in Iowa just days after a fractious debate and as the countdown to the caucuses nears the one-month mark. DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy will make their case in northwest Iowa, a more rural, conservative corner of the state.

Regardless of what form it takes, a January pre-caucus Iowa debate is not likely to feature Trump. Running more than 30 points ahead of DeSantis and Haley in the most recent Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, Trump’s camp sees no need to engage with his fellow candidates.

So what is the value of a head-to-head clash between DeSantis and Haley?

It’s hard to say how much impact a debate will have just five days out from the caucuses, and there’s no historical precedent here as a former president far outpaces his opponents.

For one thing, viewership of the debates has steadily declined since the first one in August. Even as the primary dates have drawn closer, voters seem to be disinterested in the format as it’s boycotted by the front-runner. The NewsNation debate in December drew only 4.5 million viewers, a little over a third of those who watched the first debate, according to Axios.

Will Iowans be swayed by another debate?

But a debate in Iowa may see more Iowans tuning in who are seriously weighing their options, even if the national viewer count is low. That will be important for the candidates on the stage. Still, can one last debate have a serious impact on the results of the caucus?

DeSantis thinks so. He told reporters on Wednesday that he wants to engage in as many debates and televised appearances in Iowa as he can to win over undecided voters and peel off Trump supporters.

“That gives me an opportunity to win undecided voters; it gives me an opportunity to show people that may be leaning to somebody like a Haley that I may be a better choice,” he said. “And then it also gives me an opportunity to take people that are leaning towards Donald Trump, as to why I’m a better choice.”

Interestingly enough, there is another instance of a debate in Iowa just days before the caucuses that Trump, leading the polls, decided to skip. It happened in 2016, and despite his polling advantage leading up to the caucuses, he went on to take second place that year.

Republican presidential candidates former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, left, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy prepare before a Republican presidential primary debate hosted by NewsNation on Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023, at the Moody Music Hall at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Ala.

That year, Trump participated in previous debates but skipped the last debate before Iowa over a feud with Fox News. He led Ted Cruz, the eventual caucus winner, by a handful of points in nearly every poll of Iowa in January, but Cruz edged him by about 3 points in the caucuses. Of course, that caucus loss did not stop Trump from winning the nomination.

The margins there are not anywhere close to Trump’s runaway lead in polling this year, but it does suggest these final moments of the campaign still matter in people’s decisions.

Supporters of Trump’s opponents have said throughout this primary that Iowa voters break late, so there is still room for a candidate to break out in the final weeks and days of the contest. That’s true to an extent, but we’ve also never seen a non-incumbent with a lead as large as Trump’s this close to the caucuses.

But an extra 5-10 percentage point boost to DeSantis or Haley could help either of them make the case that they’re the one to take on Trump going into the next early states. Giving undecided voters the chance to see the two of them, without other candidates to crowd out the debate, would be useful for those voters looking for a Trump alternative.

Oversight Committee Chairman†James Comer, R-Ky., speaks during the House Oversight Committee impeachment inquiry hearing into President Joe Biden, Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Oversight Committee Chair James Comer, R-Ky., seated right, talks with Ranking Member Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., before the House Oversight Committee begins an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. Seated left is Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, D-D.C.

Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, speaks during the House Oversight Committee impeachment inquiry hearing into President Joe Biden, Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Ranking Member Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., second right top, speaks on the Democratic side of the aisle, as the House Oversight Committee begins an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. Oversight Committee Chair James Comer, R-Ky., is seated top right. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., speaks with Ranking Member Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., during the House Oversight Committee impeachment inquiry hearing into President Joe Biden, Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Witnesses are sworn in before the House Oversight Committee impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. From left are, Jonathan Turley, Shapiro Chair for Public Interest Law at the George Washington University Law School, Eileen O’Connor, former Assistant Attorney General at the Department of Justice, Bruce Dubinsky, with Dubinsky Consulting, and Michael Gerhardt, Burton, Craige Distinguished Professor of Jurisprudence, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Jonathan Turley, Shapiro Chair for Public Interest Law at the George Washington University Law School, speaks during the House Oversight Committee impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Days After Heated Debate, G.O.P. Candidates Take a Gentler Tone in Iowa

Casey DeSantis recounted a few humorous interactions between her husband, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, and their children. Then she spoke in more sober tones about her fight against cancer.

Vivek Ramaswamy brought his 3-year-old son, Karthik, onstage and discussed his Hindu faith.

And Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, sitting beside her daughter, Rena, who recently married, said she still remembered her as a little girl “in pigtails.”

The Republican presidential candidates who spoke at a “faith and family” event on Saturday at Dordt University, an evangelical Christian school in Sioux Center, Iowa, sought to present a kinder, gentler side of themselves, just days after an acrimonious debate and little more than a month before the Iowa caucuses, the first nominating contest.

The candidates came to this town of just over 8,000 people on a snow-dusted plain in rural northwestern Iowa, fewer than 40 miles from South Dakota, to pitch themselves to the area’s conservative voters and to seek the endorsement of Representative Randy Feenstra, the region’s popular Republican congressman. Mr. Feenstra and his wife interviewed each candidate in front of about 400 community members and college students at the B.J. Haan Auditorium, where banners read “Glory to God Alone.”

Mr. Feenstra said the more uplifting tone of the event was purposeful.

“We didn’t want bickering,” he said. “People just wanted to hear an honest answer to some of these questions, without people interrupting, without having a 90-second little segment.”

Then, away from the crowd and the religious symbols, the candidates went right back to attacking each other — at least mildly.

The switch in rhetoric underscored the tenuous position of any candidate not named Donald J. Trump. The former president, who was not at the event, has maintained a commanding lead over his rivals, and even Ms. Haley, who has gained ground as Mr. DeSantis has slipped, trails far behind.

Mr. Ramaswamy, who is even further behind in most national polls, made a bold forecast for a come-from-behind upset victory.

“Our strategy is to shock the expectations on Jan. 15,” Mr. Ramaswamy told reporters outside the auditorium, moments after doing 30 push-ups on the cold concrete with a member of Dordt’s football team, which had come out to support him.

Addressing the contentious debate in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Wednesday, where he accused Ms. Haley of being “corrupt” and a “fascist,” Mr. Ramaswamy suggested that Ms. Haley had stooped even lower.

“She called me ‘scum’ and ‘dumb’ in the two debates. I didn’t call her dumb. I did reveal that neither she nor Chris Christie know the first thing about the countries that they supposedly want to send our resources to go fight for,” he said, referring to the former governor of New Jersey who is also running for the Republican nomination.

And while Mr. DeSantis struck a bipartisan tone onstage, saying that he would seek common ground with his political opponents, he also went on the offensive in a conversation after the event, criticizing the donation Ms. Haley recently received from Reid Hoffman, the billionaire Democratic donor who co-founded LinkedIn.

Linda Kreykes, 63, said that she was leaning toward supporting Mr. DeSantis but that she appreciated the comments that Mr. Ramaswamy, who is of Indian descent, made onstage about the shared teachings of Christianity and Hinduism.

“He shared similarities between the two faiths,” she said. “We’re ultimately not so different from each other.”

When it was her turn, Ms. Haley discussed the shooting at a historic Black church in Charleston, S.C., in 2015, when a white gunman killed nine Black worshipers. Ms. Haley talked about her decision to remove the Confederate flag from the Statehouse after the shooter was seen in photos posing proudly with the flag and a racist manifesto he had written was uncovered.

But Ms. Haley, in recounting her decision to call for the flag’s removal, criticized the national news media, asserting that they had “wanted to make it about race.”

“Half of South Carolinians saw the Confederate flag as tradition and heritage,” Ms. Haley said. “The other half of South Carolinians saw slavery and hate. This wasn’t about me judging either side.”

A majority of Iowa’s statewide politicians have stayed neutral in the Republican primary, though Gov. Kim Reynolds has endorsed Mr. DeSantis. Mr. Feenstra has indicated that he is considering making an endorsement as well, though he declined to do so on Saturday.

Still, the congeniality of the event left an impression on voters, who said they were sick of the rancor of the debates.

Rather than allowing them to squabble onstage, said Steve Rehder, 59, who is deciding between Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis, “tell the candidates to answer the question and move on.”

In Iowa, Nikki Haley Looks Beyond Her Rivals’ Attacks

In her first campaign stop since Wednesday’s contentious Republican debate, Nikki Haley, the former United Nations ambassador and former governor of South Carolina, largely ignored the many attacks that her fellow candidates, aware of her rise in the polls, had lobbed at her. What she did discuss suggested she continued to feel that the criticism wasn’t, as she said on Wednesday night, “worth my time.”

Speaking to about 100 people in a convention center conference room in Sioux City, Iowa, on Friday, Ms. Haley stuck to the topics that have become the cornerstones of her campaign — her foreign policy experience and her willingness to tell “hard truths.” She railed against China, pledged to be a fiscally responsible president and even answered a question about fears that Venezuela could invade its South American neighbor, Guyana.

Despite her growing rivalry with Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida to become the chief alternative to former President Donald J. Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, Ms. Haley did not mention Mr. DeSantis by name, nor did she mention the debate — where she was in the line of fire for much of the evening — until the final minutes of the event.

Responding to a voter’s question about her standing in the race, Ms. Haley said she did not think she needed to win the Iowa caucus to be successful.

“The momentum is on our side,” she said. “The way I look at it is, we just need to have a good showing in Iowa. I don’t think that means we have to win, necessarily, but I think that we have to have a good showing.”

Ms. Haley also appeared to indicate that she would not accept an offer to be Mr. Trump’s running mate, if he were to win the nomination and ask her. “I’ve never played for second,” she said.

Ms. Haley’s campaign has gained prominence in recent weeks. Many national polls now put her in a heated race for second place with Mr. DeSantis, and she is running at a similar level in Iowa, at roughly 17.5 percent. (Mr. Trump is well ahead of them both, at more than 45 percent.)

Late last month, Americans for Prosperity Action, the conservative political network founded by the billionaire brothers David and Charles Koch, endorsed Ms. Haley, which gave her campaign access to the network’s financial might and to a pool of staff members to knock on doors and make phone calls.

During the Republican debate in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Wednesday, Ms. Haley’s increasing prominence made her the target of frequent attacks from Mr. DeSantis and the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Mr. Ramaswamy in particular assailed her, calling her a “fascist,” asserting that she was in the pocket of business interests and at one point holding up a notepad on which he had written, “Nikki = Corrupt.”

“I love all the attention, fellas,” Ms. Haley quipped at one point, even as she appeared, at least at moments, to fade into the debate’s background. Some analysts suggested afterward that Ms. Haley had not mounted a strong enough defense of herself.

Unlike former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who rehashed his debate zingers during his campaign stops in New Hampshire on Thursday, Ms. Haley appeared to have moved on. She said the debates had served to winnow the field, and she predicted that another candidate — evidently Mr. DeSantis, though she did not name him — would drop out of the race after the Iowa caucuses.

“We’ve got three major people that are going to go into Iowa, and I think after Iowa, one’s going to drop,” Ms. Haley said. “And then I think you’re going to have a play with me and Trump in New Hampshire, and then we’re going to go to my home state in South Carolina, and then we’re going to take it.”

Many in attendance in Sioux City appeared to agree with Ms. Haley’s decision to largely ignore the attacks from her opponents, saying they had admired her debate performance on Wednesday.

“She did so well at the debate,” said Adrienne Dunn, a 48-year-old Sioux City resident who is leaning toward voting for Ms. Haley but has not made a final decision. “She was prepared. She had good answers.”