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Confidential US analysis deems Israel unlikely to win against Hezbollah on the second front.
Israel is unlikely to win a battle against the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah if it opens a new front on its northern border, according to a clandestine US intelligence analysis.
The US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) determined that fighting on two fronts would put the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) under too much strain, with the Air Force already overworked due to frequent operations in Gaza.
According to a Washington Post story, IDF pilots would face significantly more perilous missions when confronted with Hezbollah’s formidable air defense.
Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged cross-border fire regularly since October 8, when the Lebanese organization began operations in support of Hamas.
The IDF said on Sunday that it has finished the “dismantling” of Hamas’ leadership structure in northern Gaza.
Tens of thousands of troops have already been removed from Gaza, with some being redeployed to the northern front in case conflict breaks out.
Last week, Israel killed a top Hamas official in a drone attack in Beirut, increasing concerns of a regional escalation. Hezbollah has subsequently reacted, releasing at least 40 missiles into northern Israel.
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, met with the presidents of Jordan and Qatar on Sunday in an attempt to prevent the tension from spilling over.
He told reporters in Doha, “This is a time of great tension in the region.” This is a dispute that might easily spread, resulting in even more uncertainty and misery.”
Mr Blinken was also entrusted with convincing Arab leaders that the US opposed the forced removal of residents from Gaza.
Amos Yadlin, a former IDF military intelligence head, stated on Sunday that Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah commander, does not want another war since Lebanon is fragile, but the IDF is preparing for a larger confrontation with the Iran-backed group.
“Hezbollah cares about Lebanon – they don’t want to see what is happening in Gaza to happen in Beirut, they don’t want to be seen as the ones who destroyed Lebanon,” said Mr. Yadlin.
“That being said, we must proceed with caution; we lack the knowledge to interpret Nasrallah’s thoughts. The [IDF] northern command does not base its operations and deployment on the basis that Nasrallah does not desire a conflict.”
Fearing an invasion from the north, Israel wants Hezbollah to comply with a long-standing UN resolution requiring its militants to retreat around 18 miles from the border.
Israel also violated the resolution by flying jets over Lebanon.
Israeli authorities have stated that if discussions over governance and security in southern Lebanon fail to reach an acceptable compromise, a military escalation against Hezbollah is likely.
Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, an IDF spokesperson, said late Saturday: “We must protect our people, if not diplomatically, then by force of weapons.
“The diplomatic window may be short, but it’s still open.”
Amos Hochstein, a White House adviser who successfully negotiated a maritime border agreement between Lebanon and Israel, was in the region this week looking for methods to avert another Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
Nasrallah stated in a speech on Friday that he may be prepared to negotiate some issues of the Lebanon-Israel border, but made no definite guarantees.
Iran-backed Hezbollah possesses tens of thousands of rockets and missiles, as well as seasoned militants who have fought in Lebanon and Syria. Its leaders have also provided advice to Iran-backed armed organizations in Yemen and Iraq.
The Gaza conflict has sparked splits in Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing cabinet, causing the Israeli prime minister to order high-ranking officials to undergo lie detector tests to prevent leaks to the press, according to Israeli media.
According to Israel’s Channel 12, during a cabinet meeting, Mr Netanyahu stated: “We have a plague of leaks and I am not willing to continue like this, which is why I directed the promotion of a law requiring everyone who sits in cabinets and security discussions, including the political and professional ranks, to undergo a polygraph.”
The prime minister’s statements follow significant media coverage of a recent conference to address postwar Gaza, which ended in acrimony and recriminations.
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